Saudi Arabia: Sudden Change Brings Uncertainty To Oil Prices

By Joe Nichols | May 09, 2016 08:09 AM EDT

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The recent dismissal of Ali al-Naimi, the influential and long-serving Saudi Arabian oil minister suddenly changes the temperament of the oil price game. His dismissal ushers in a new wave of fear over oil prices.

Prices have rallied recently, but this could abruptly change course based on the policies that the new oil minister, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will begin to implement.

Businesses and jobs not only in the oil industry, but across all business sectors could be affected one way or the other.

Some believe that the removal of the former oil minister cemented the Crown Prince's grip on Saudi Arabia's energy policy.

A number of officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said this could mean a more serious politicization of oil-product strategy as the kingdom tries to neutralize Iran which is now attempting to regain its former standing as an oil producer after Western sanctions were lifted.

Al-Naimi was definitely the one person most credited for the drop in world fuel prices that started in late 2014. He led the continued refusal of OPEC countries to reduce their oil production, resulting in an increase in global oil supply that allowed prices to fall.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia seemed willing to freeze its output in the Doha, Qatar talks last month but changed its approach. If Naimi wanted to reduce productions, those above him, including the Crown Prince, are not. His dismissal might mean ramping up oil production.

"Mohammed bin Salman has changed everything," said Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"He doesn't feel the economic burden to have to cooperate with OPEC," she added.

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