Harley-Davidson Stock Tumbles As Analysts See Threat to Market Share

Shares of Harley, the iconic Milwaukee-based motorcycle maker, fell 7% Wednesday after a research report was issued that lowered shipment and revenue projections.

A Harley-Davidson spokesman, Tony Macrito, said there would be no comment leading up to the next earnings report, scheduled for April 19.

Harley-Davidson has long been the choice of bikers who want a big, loud, comfortable cruiser, or a bike with some deep, made-in-the-USA credibility Sure, there are some big bikes and cruisers from other manufacturers, but this particular style of motorcycle has long been associated with a roaring Harley V-Twin-engined hog.

Tomlinson says total motorcycle revenue will probably come in at $1.2 to $1.22 billion, a decrease of up to 4.3% over the same quarter last year.

John Tomlinson, an ITG Research analyst, estimated in a report that Harley's quarterly U.S. retail sales fell as much as 7 percent to 32,995 motorcycles [in the first quarter]. That followed a report on Tuesday by David Macgregor, a Longbow Research analyst, that said Polaris Industries Inc.'s Indian brand had a strong quarter and probably cut into Harley's market share.

Shares of the iconic bike maker were down about 8% on Wednesday morning following a bearish note on the company's market share position so far in 2016. Longbow analyst David MacGregor said that his firm's channel checks indicate that Polaris' (PII - Get Report) Indian motorcycle brand has been taking away Harley-Davidson's market share in the cruiser and sportster segments.

Said Harley-Davidson CEO Matt Levatich in a Jan. 28 interview with TheStreet, "In the end, some of the things we initiated early in 2015 started to come through in the fourth quarter. Interestingly, the competitiveness in the industry hasn't diminished -- the U.S. dollar advantage is still there for our competitors, but we have stood up our assets and resources and come to market prepared to win."

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