In the aftermath of Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional referendum failure last Sunday, stocks dropped even further causing uncertainty and putting pressure on Italian banks.
On Monday’s trading, Italian bank stock was down, ranging from a 4 to 7% decline wherein Monte dei Paschi fell by 4%, UniCredit SpA by 5%, and Banco Popolare di Milano by 7%. This comes after Italians voted the day before against the constitution reform plan proposed by Renzi, with the No Vote at 60% and Yes at 40%.
Italy’s financial market has long since been unstable with low performance and piling loans. Monte dei Paschi in particular has lost 86% in the past year, according to Financial Times.
Banks are under further pressure to raise money and capital, as well as find private solutions else risking nationalization. However the latter decision may not come until after a new government has been formed in Italy.
In order to stay afloat, Monte dei Paschi needs a EUR5 billion increase in capital which they hope to receive from the Qatar Investment Authority. Fox Business reports, however, that the deal may not be reached within the deadline.
Furthermore, Financial Times reports that if private solutions fail, the bank and its supervisers at the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to enact a “precautionary recapitalization”, which entails injecting state funds and converting subordinated debt into equity.
UniCredit SpA, on the other hand, is healthier than Monte dei Paschi but is still in need of EUR13 billion. A new strategy may be announced during a presentation by their top management in December 13.
“If Italy can’t sort out its banks, then they will be in a real mess. Once again Europe finds itself in a position where politics, the ECB and the banks are dangerously entwined,” says Patrick O’Donnell, Aberdeen Asset Management investment manager.
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